PUBLISHED
August 04, 2024
KARACHI:
Once confined to the political periphery, far-right and nativist parties are now gaining ground across Europe, disrupting the Continent’s delicate equilibrium. From Helsinki to The Hague, their rise is reshaping the political landscape, with mainstream parties sometimes adopting more populist agendas to retain voters.
In France, the spectre of far-right dominance came alarmingly close to becoming reality in last month’s tense snap election, highlighting the increasing influence of these movements. Although the country narrowly averted a far-right takeover, the persistent shadow of rising nationalist sentiment continues to haunt Europe, posing a significant threat to its future direction.
While Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National fell short of power in Paris, the party’s growing momentum has invigorated the far-right movement within the Eurozone’s second-largest economy, which, alongside Germany, has long been a pillar of the European Union. In the final tally, Le Pen’s party secured the third spot in the French Parliament with 143 seats, a significant increase from the 88 seats it held in the previous assembly. As President Emmanuel Macron continues his political power struggle with Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the anti-capitalist leader of the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) within the New Popular Union (NUPES), Le Pen, the doyenne of the Rassemblement National, claimed that her party’s victory has only been ‘delayed’ and that the far-right ‘tide is rising.’
The ‘tide’ is by no means confined to France.
Earlier, in the Netherlands, a bastion of liberal ideals, far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders achieved a surprising electoral victory, pushing his anti-European Union party past the finish line. After months of negotiations, the Freedom Party (PVV) reached an agreement to form a right-wing coalition government with three other parties. Although Wilders has stepped back from his bid to become the Dutch Prime Minister, the veteran anti-Islam, anti-EU politician is expected to wield considerable influence as the leader of the largest political bloc in parliament. Analysts who have tracked Wilders’ political trajectory for the past decade see the rise of his Freedom Party as indicative of a broader trend of populist and far-right movements advancing into the European mainstream.
National-conservative and far-right parties now govern in seven of the EU’s 27 member states: Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, and Slovakia. Additionally, a number of other EU countries are led by right-leaning coalition governments.
In Italy, Giorgia Meloni leads the most right-wing government since Benito Mussolini, with her party’s neo-fascist roots shaping its policies. Far-right factions are also integrated into Finland’s ruling coalition, and in Sweden, a minority government formed by three center-right parties relies on the Sweden Democrats for parliamentary support, giving the far-right party unprecedented influence over government decisions. Germany has witnessed a considerable rise in far-right popularity, with the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) capturing significant support from young voters and securing second place in the recent EU Parliament elections.
Meanwhile, Viktor Orbán, who has led Hungary’s far-right government for over a decade, has formed an alliance with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally to create a new bloc in the EU Parliament. Known as Patriots for Europe and led by Le Pen’s protégé Jordan Bardella, this bloc is now the third-largest in the parliament, positioned to wield substantial influence over EU policy.
Adding to Europe’s political shift, a grand coalition of center-right, center-left, and liberal parties, which has long maintained a cordon sanitaire, or a firewall, around the far right, has seen a notable decline in the recent EU elections. According to the Centre for European Reform, a Brussels-based think tank, the vote share for populist right-wing and far-right parties has surged across many EU member states, driven by a number of factors. The Centre noted that in the first ballot since Brexit, the vote share for parties to the right of the conservative European People’s Party (EPP) increased from 18 per cent in 2019 to just over 24 per cent, including hard-right parties currently seated in the non-attached group.
Reflecting on the long-term impact of the far-right’s rise, Dr. Ashok Swain, a Professor of Peace and Conflict at Uppsala University, noted, “In the long run, the rise of far-right parties is expected to impact EU policies.” He explained that these parties typically push for stricter immigration controls, a rollback of climate change initiatives, and more nationalist economic policies. “Such shifts could undermine the EU’s commitment to liberal democratic values and alter its stance on global issues, including its approach to Russia and the Green Deal,” Swain warned. He further highlighted that the erosion of traditional center-left and center-right parties has led to a more fragmented political landscape, making it increasingly difficult to form stable governments without right-wing support. “This fragmentation could amplify the influence of far-right parties within the EU, shaping both domestic and international policy agendas,” he added.
Commenting on the significant political gains made by the far right in the recent European Parliament elections, Dr. Francesco Nicoli, a Professor of Political Economy at Ghent University, said: “The far right has indeed made significant strides, but it’s important not to overstate their immediate impact. For these parties to influence economic and foreign policies substantially, they would need to secure victories in both France and Germany. Currently, it appears they will likely concentrate on domestic issues such as immigration and cultural policies that resonate with their base.”
Fueling the right
The growing support for far-right parties is raising alarms among experts. Commenting on the factors behind the strong polling of these groups across the Continent, Swain said: “The rise of far-right parties in Europe is driven by several factors. Economic concerns, such as inequality, job insecurity, and the rising cost of living, are major concerns for many voters who feel left behind by EU policies.”
“Their anti-immigration messages resonate with those who fear the repercussions of the 2015–16 migrant crisis and perceive threats to national identity,” he added.
Swain noted that Euroscepticism contributes to this trend, as many Europeans view the EU as an unaccountable bureaucracy that undermines national sovereignty. Political disillusionment, he pointed out, is another driver of far-right gains. “There is a perception that traditional parties are disconnected from real issues facing ordinary people. Moreover, media and social networks amplify the reach of far-right messages,” the Sweden-based academic concluded.
Nicoli described several interrelated challenges fueling the rise of far-right parties across Europe. “There is a strong economic component. Many voters are anxious about being left behind amid rapid economic changes. It’s not necessarily those who have been left behind, but rather those who fear they might be. People concerned about the economic direction tend to support the far-right.”
Like Swain, he also highlighted dissatisfaction with certain policies, such as the Green Deal, as contributing factors. “Initially, there was broad support for the Green Deal, but as soon as the costs became apparent, enthusiasm waned.”
Finally, Nicoli pointed to a broader sense of insecurity, not only economic or physical but also cultural. “Many people feel that their roots, communities, and identities are under threat.” Far-right parties, he noted, not only highlight these concerns but sometimes even exploit the situation for political gain.
While these parties will likely continue to influence domestic policies and sway voters, Nicoli downplayed their potential to significantly impact decisions in the EU Parliament. “The far-right’s influence will depend largely on their ability to stay united,” he said. “At present, they are divided on key issues, such as support for Ukraine and fiscal policy.”
Fading left
Reports indicate that liberal parties are grappling with the challenge of reasserting their influence. To remain relevant, some have increasingly turned to coalition governments with right-leaning parties. An analysis by Chatham House suggests that this shift is motivated by fears of losing voters to far-right alternatives.
Swain observed that this trend has helped normalize far-right positions, integrating them into mainstream political discourse. He attributed the weakening of left-wing parties to political disillusionment and fragmentation, which has favored more cohesive far-right groups.
According to The Guardian, several factors have diminished the appeal of left-wing parties across many countries, including the rising cost of living, the difficulties of pandemic recovery, and the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Charming young voters
In the 2024 EU elections, far-right parties won a quarter of the seats, putting them on par with the largest bloc, the center-right European People’s Party. The outcome was widely anticipated, with polls predicting the far-right’s triumph. However, the current electoral landscape has exposed a significant shift: in both European and national elections, voters under 30 increasingly backed far-right parties such as Germany’s AfD, France’s Rassemblement National, Spain’s Vox, Italy’s Brothers of Italy, Portugal’s Chega, Belgium’s Vlaams Belang, and Finland’s Finns Party. This voting pattern marks a sharp departure from the 2019 EU elections, when young voters overwhelmingly favored Green parties.
Swain noted that far-right parties have increasingly co-opted issues traditionally associated with the left. At the same time, Nicoli observed that the right has been moderating its stance to appeal to a broader electorate, appearing less extreme in its approach.
According to Simon Schnetzer, author of the 2024 study Jugend in Deutschland (Youth in Germany), concerns about future prosperity—not cultural nationalism—have driven the shift towards far-right politics among young people. Schnetzer’s research indicates that while economic hardship can often lead to support for radical left-wing change, fears about losing social status more commonly foster conservative inclinations towards stability and security.
To lure young voters, parties like the French National Rally and the Dutch Party for Freedom often combine a commitment to liberal values—such as freedom of speech and gender equality—with appeals for social, economic, and cultural security. Two years ago, Le Pen’s manifesto, for instance, proposed eliminating taxes for those under 30, offering financial support to student workers, and increasing student housing. Similarly, in the Netherlands, Wilders, the PVV leader, in 2023, campaigned on promises to invest in healthcare and housing, a promise also echoed by the leadership of the AfD in Germany.
The long-term impact
As newly elected lawmakers take their seats in the EU Parliament following the June elections, the continent’s resurgent yet fragmented nationalist parties are gearing up to confront their rivals in Brussels. Analysts, however, caution that the degree of the far-right’s impact on parliamentary proceedings will largely hinge on their ability to present a unified front.
“Far-right influence on foreign policy is evident in their diverse positions on issues like the war in Ukraine, Palestine, and EU enlargement,” said Swain. He noted that while the European Parliament has limited sway over foreign policy, an increased number of Eurosceptic and far-right MEPs could impact the EU’s overall stance.
In the short and medium term, Swain warned of the challenge posed by obstructive member states in the European Council, such as Hungary, where populist leader Viktor Orbán has been skeptical of sanctions on Russia and support for Ukraine. Populists in other countries, including Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, might mirror Orbán’s positions within the EU Council.
“Overall, the rise of far-right parties will lead to significant shifts in policy and governance, affecting migration, climate action, and foreign policy,” Swain cautioned. “This trend is likely to reshape the political landscape, with potential long-term implications for the EU’s cohesion and direction.”
He added that the growing influence of Eurosceptic leaders and parties at the national level may affect member states’ positions in the European Council, potentially leading to a shift towards weakening the EU’s policy and legislative powers in favor of national processes.
